The rapid advance of Rwandan troops in the DRC, illustrated by the capture of Goma, does not, however, shed light on Rwanda’s intentions.
The capital of North Kivu, Goma, has fallen. Joint troops from the M23 militia and Rwanda defeated the emergency force deployed to defend the city. It consisted of the special battalion of MONUSCO (United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo) and South African troops deployed as part of Sadec, the regional structure of southern Africa.
Uncertainty over Rwandan politics
The advance of the M23 and Rwandan troops in the east of the country, which includes North and South Kivu as well as Ituri, seems inevitable. Congolese President Félix Tshisekedi called on a Romanian mercenary company that was supposed to make a difference through the use of drones. This was without taking into account the effectiveness of the Rwandan army’s anti-aircraft defense and GPS jamming, which rendered these weapons inoperable.
In the conquered territories, the M23 militias have set up a new economy allowing the exploitation of coltan and gold, the production of which is transported to Rwanda. The losses for North Kivu are estimated at 7 million dollars per month. Beyond the economic aspect, Rwanda’s objectives remain unclear. Indeed, if the Rwandan roving ambassador for the Great Lakes region, Vincent Karega, declared that the M23 militias “will continue in South Kivu, because Goma cannot be an end in itself” he was immediately denied by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Kigali. However, James Kabarebe, an important leader of the country of a Thousand Hills, claims the two regions as historically Rwandan.
At the same time, Corneille Nangaa, the leader of the Congo River Alliance (AFC), which claims to be the political wing of the M23, states: “Our objective is neither Goma nor Bukavu but Kinshasa, the source of all problems .” The AFC is making a lot of effort to try to unite the various armed militias that are swarming in the region. Given the situation, it is not impossible that some wazalendo (patriots in Kiswahili) who were fighting alongside the Congolese armed forces will change sides.
In any case, whatever Rwanda’s objective, whether to transform the eastern region of the DRC into a kind of dominion or to overthrow power in favour of a government associated with, or even subordinate to, Kigali, the challenge for Rwanda is the administration of these vast territories.
The DRC isolated
This is obviously a hard blow for Tshisekedi, who had made the defense of sovereignty his main electoral argument during the last presidential elections. He calls for national unity and urges young people to enlist in the army. He announced a counter-offensive that risks not going beyond the stage of rhetoric given the state of disrepair of the Congolese army, especially since few countries in the region wish to invest militarily.
At the diplomatic level, it is not much better. Certainly, most countries have condemned the capture of Goma, but in general terms, these declarations are accompanied by dissuasive measures. Western countries do not want to fall out with Rwandan President Paul Kagame who remains a loyal supporter of the Western camp by protecting the infrastructure of the oil majors, including TotalEnergies, in Mozambique. Moreover, his authoritarian liberalism is obviously not displeasing to Trump and his ilk.
The voices of “negotiation” also seem to be at an impasse. Tshisekedi declined the invitation of Kenyan William Ruto for a meeting with Kagame. He preferred to go to Angola, where President João Lourenço led a mediation work between the two countries. Lourenço denounced the capture of Goma by the Rwandans at the risk of undermining his neutrality with Kigali.
In this war, it is the civilian populations who are paying the heaviest price for Rwanda’s aggression in the DRC, particularly women and young girls who are victims of rape and sexual assault, the number of which has exploded.
Paul Martial is a correspondent for International Viewpoint. He is editor of Afriques en Lutte and a member of the Fourth International in France.
*First published by L’Anticapitaliste.
